Thoughts on Israel’s challenges after 8 days of war

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN

Israel has suffered an unprecedented attack by Hamas that is on the level of genocide in its extent. The massacre of 1,000 civilians along the border and killing of hundreds of police and soldiers, has led to intense trauma across Israel. The names of the victims and identification and burial of them continues even a week after the attack. In addition more than 5,000 rockets have been fired at Israeli cities. Schools are closed in Israel and most cities are now deserted, with shops closed and restaurants closed as people wait to see what will come next.

The attack has also emboldened Iran-backed Hezbollah into daily attacks along Israel’s northern border, leading to concerns of a wider war.

Israel’s political leadership has largely vanished, leaving the President and Defense Minister as the main faces during the war. The usually divisive politicians have exited the stage for now. Although the calls across the country are for unity and waiting until after the war to investigate the security failures, there are feelings that the state has let down many people. Victims whose loved ones were kidnapped and missing are not receiving much support from officials. In contrast volunteers have stepped up to help soldiers, reservists and civilians. Hospitals have performed well amid despite receiving thousands of wounded from the October 7 attack.

Israel’s response has been a military air campaign in Gaza, striking thousands of targets. However it is unclear how effective this is. Hamas had time to vanish back into the civilian urban environment. Israel lost the initiative by not striking immediately. A chaotic military response also left civilians on the Gaza border often surrounded by terrorists and cut off for many hours on October 7, letting thousands of terrorists enter Israel and loot, murder and kidnap. It’s unclear why the defense forces did not immediately send tanks, planes and helicopters to confront the attack early in the morning, and why there was no warning. New documents show extensive planning by Hamas, but it’s unclear if the planning was so extensive, how come there was no intelligence warning.

While Israel has received impressive support for Europe and the US, other countries are being more critical, such as China and Russia. There is concern normalization with Saudi Arabia may be jeopardized. This shows that the attack has strategic implications for Israel. The Hamas massacre has emboldened Iran and Hezbollah and also harmed Israel’s ties with some countries. It remains to be seen how Israel’s military will proceed in Gaza and whether Hamas will be defeated or allowed to continue as it did after 2009, 2014 and other conflicts.

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